Adam Grant on Biden’s 2024 Campaign: Why Escalation of Commitment Keeps Him in the Race Despite Setbacks

Organizational psychologist Adam Grant recently explained why President Joe Biden is likely to stay in the 2024 presidential race despite his poor debate performance against Trump and calls for him to drop out. In a New York Times article, Grant said Biden’s decision is due to a psychological phenomenon called “escalation of commitment to a losing course of action.” He noted that Biden’s campaign has committed to continuing the race.

Grant explained that when facing potential failure, individuals often double down on their decisions rather than reconsider them. He referenced research by Barry Staw, which identifies certain conditions that make this behavior more likely: being directly responsible for the decision, having invested significant time and effort, and believing in the possibility of eventual success.

According to Grant, Biden’s situation fits all these criteria, having announced his re-election bid in April 2023, invested 14 months into his campaign, and has previously defied the odds in the 2020 election.

To address this issue, Grant suggested that unbiased advisors should engage Biden in a reflective conversation. They should encourage him to consider the reasons for both continuing and withdrawing from the race and to evaluate what evidence might convince him that stepping down would be the best option.

Grant emphasized the importance of Biden contemplating the possibility of losing the election and hoped that he would take these considerations seriously.

The New York Times editorial board also recently called for Biden to drop out of the race, arguing that he no longer appears as capable as he did four years ago. They suggested that Biden’s current state is not what voters expected and that stepping down would be in the country’s best interest.

Despite Biden’s belief in his ability to defeat Trump again, the editorial board’s stance reflects a growing concern about his viability as a candidate.

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted in late June showed that 54 percent of registered Democratic voters support Biden running again, while 46 percent do not. Additionally, 95 percent of Democrats cited Biden’s age as a reason against his candidacy.

Although the poll’s margin of error for the subgroup of registered Democrats is unclear, the overall sample margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, indicating significant division within the party regarding Biden’s re-election bid.