Polls Show Tight Race Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with Notable Shifts in Key Swing States

Since Kamala Harris became the Democrats’ de facto nominee, recent polls on the race between her and Donald Trump reveal some interesting trends, though it’s important to remember these results are from a highly fluid political environment.

Averaging the post-Biden exit polls shows Trump leading by a narrow margin of 0.4 percentage points, which is similar to the highest level of support Joe Biden achieved throughout the year. This average includes surveys from CNN and The Times, both of which have been less favorable to Democrats, potentially skewing the results slightly in Trump’s favor.

The more intriguing data comes from the swing states, where recent polls indicate a tight race. In the critical Blue Wall states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—the polls show a dead heat between Harris and Trump. Additionally, Georgia, which has been a stronghold for Trump with a lead of 5 to 6 percentage points, now shows Harris trailing by just 1 or 2 points, suggesting a notable shift in voter sentiment.

In contrast, polls from Arizona and Nevada have not yet reflected this trend, with limited data available from these states making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. This discrepancy raises questions about whether the shift seen in Georgia and the Blue Wall states is an isolated occurrence or part of a broader trend.

The early evidence suggests that Harris is expanding her electoral map, providing her with multiple potential paths to victory in the Electoral College. This growing competitive terrain could significantly impact the overall dynamics of the race as more data becomes available.