Praneet Thakar
In the spring of 2024, East Africa experienced exceptionally heavy long rains, particularly from late March through April and into May. This intense rainfall resulted in severe flooding across Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, and neighboring areas, leading to significant devastation. The flooding caused the loss of hundreds of lives and impacted over 700,000 people through extensive infrastructure damage, school closures, lost livestock, and the destruction of thousands of hectares of crops.
A collaborative study involving researchers from Kenya, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom sought to understand the role of human-induced climate change in amplifying the likelihood and intensity of the rainfall that led to the floods.
The study focused on the area around Lake Tanganyika, Lake Victoria, the central Highlands, and the coastal regions of Tanzania, analyzing the 30-day maximum accumulated rainfall during the wettest period from March to April 2024.
East Africa has faced a series of environmental disasters over recent years, including prolonged droughts and multiple severe flooding events. These challenges have created a complex humanitarian crisis characterized by displacement, infrastructure damage, food insecurity, health risks, and weakened resilience.
Rapid urbanization, especially in informal settlements on flood-prone land, exacerbates the flood risks, alongside land-use changes like deforestation and agricultural expansion.
Historically, East Africa exhibited a drying trend towards the late 20th century, while climate models projected increased heavy rainfall due to global warming. Recent data shows a wetter trend in the last 15 years, though interpreting these changes remains challenging.
Despite the observed increase in precipitation, the long-term trend remains unclear, with recent models indicating that flooding risks have increased due to human-induced climate changes.
The study also assessed the impact of natural climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, on the intensity of the rains. These factors were found to have minimal influence on the 2024 rains.
The results suggest that human-induced climate change has played a significant role in increasing both the likelihood and intensity of such extreme rainfall events. To address these challenges, enhancing flood resilience through improved early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and social protection programs is crucial for mitigating future impacts and helping communities recover from disasters.
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