Friedrich Merz Faces Obstacles on Path to Chancellery as AfD’s Rise and New Alliances Threaten CDU’s Stability

Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a keen hobby pilot, should be relishing his position as the frontrunner for the chancellery. With the CDU holding a significant lead in the polls, Merz’s dream of leading Germany seems within reach. However, recent developments have introduced considerable challenges that threaten to derail his path to power.

Despite the CDU’s strong performance in the polls, Merz is grappling with complications from recent state elections. The results from Thuringia and Saxony have brought the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) into the spotlight. The AfD’s success in these regions presents a major obstacle for Merz as he tries to navigate the implications of these results for his party’s future.

The rise of the AfD, which has made significant inroads with its anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric, has put all major democratic parties in a difficult position. The CDU, along with other democratic parties, has pledged not to form coalitions with the AfD, making it challenging to build a majority. The upcoming election in Brandenburg could further complicate matters if similar trends continue.

Adding to Merz’s difficulties is the rise of Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Wagenknecht, known for her controversial positions, has seen her party gain substantial support. This unexpected success forces Merz to consider a high-risk coalition with her party, which could entail making significant concessions.

Wagenknecht’s BSW is tapping into voter frustration, particularly in the eastern regions, by opposing government policies on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine. This puts additional pressure on Merz to negotiate with a party that holds divergent views from his own.

Internal dissent within the CDU has emerged as a consequence of Merz’s decision to potentially ally with Wagenknecht’s BSW. Critics argue that such a move could undermine the party’s traditional values and damage its credibility. This internal strife threatens Merz’s leadership position as the party approaches the national election in September 2025.

The overall impact of the recent state election results and the potential coalition with Wagenknecht’s BSW could lead to significant shifts in German politics. As debates over immigration and foreign policy intensify, Merz must adeptly manage both internal party challenges and the evolving political environment to maintain his position as the leading candidate for chancellor.