Praneet Thakar
Recent satellite imagery has revealed that Russia may have encountered a significant setback in its development of the RS-28 Sarmat missile, a critical component of its nuclear modernization efforts. Analysis of images captured by Maxar Technologies on September 21 indicates a large crater approximately 60 meters wide at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome launch site, suggesting extensive damage that was not present in earlier photos taken in the month.
This incident raises concerns about the reliability and progress of a missile that is intended to enhance Russia’s strategic capabilities.
Experts, including Pavel Podvig, a noted analyst, believe the imagery points to a catastrophic failure during the missile test. Podvig remarked that the visible damage suggests a serious incident involving the missile and its silo.
Similarly, Timothy Wright from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) speculated that the destruction around the silo likely indicates a failure soon after ignition, possibly due to a malfunctioning booster. This assessment is reinforced by James Acton from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who noted the compelling evidence of a significant explosion at the site.
The Kremlin has not provided any official comment regarding the incident, having redirected inquiries to the Ministry of Defence, which has remained silent on recent Sarmat tests. This lack of communication from Russian officials comes at a time of heightened scrutiny from the United States and its allies, particularly given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and escalating tensions between Russia and the West.
The Sarmat missile is a focal point of concern, especially as President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russia possesses the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal globally.
The RS-28 Sarmat, known as Satan II in the West, is designed to deliver nuclear warheads over vast distances, boasting a range of 18,000 kilometers and the capability to carry multiple independently targetable nuclear warheads.
Originally slated for deployment in 2018, the missile’s rollout has faced numerous delays, with Putin indicating in October 2023 that the program was nearing completion. However, this recent test failure adds to a concerning trend, marking the fourth consecutive unsuccessful test of the Sarmat.
Despite the setbacks, analysts like Wright caution that the failure does not necessarily jeopardize the Sarmat program itself, though it may push back its already delayed introduction into service. The incident at Plesetsk could impose additional pressures on Russia’s aging SS-18 missile systems, which the Sarmat is intended to replace.
Moreover, experts like Nikolai Sokov believe that the Russian military will likely continue to pursue the Sarmat project, as maintaining competition among missile design firms is seen as vital for the integrity of Russia’s military capabilities.
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