Experts Predict Trump’s Second Term Cabinet Will Favor Loyalty Over Moderation

If Donald Trump wins a second term, experts suggest he is unlikely to appoint moderate or established officials to his Cabinet who might challenge his decisions. Trump’s previous term saw the departure of several high-profile officials, such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis and National Security Adviser John Bolton, who were dismissed or resigned due to disagreements with Trump’s policies and approach.

This pattern indicates that Trump may prioritize loyalty over competence in his future appointments.

In his first term, Trump faced resistance from some of his Cabinet members, including Mark Esper, who was removed following a controversial incident involving protests against police violence.

The trend of ousting officials who did not fully align with Trump’s views suggests a preference for unwavering loyalty. As a result, experts predict that Trump’s second term would likely see a Cabinet composed primarily of loyalists who would not challenge his directives.

Political analysts, such as Bowdoin College professor Andrew Rudalevige, anticipate that Trump’s strategy for a second term will involve ensuring that his appointees are loyal to him and his vision, reducing the likelihood of internal dissent. This approach aims to streamline decision-making and avoid the complications of firing dissenting officials, which characterized his first term.

Despite the presence of moderate Republicans in his first administration, this did not prevent significant events such as the January 6 Capitol riot or problematic management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This lack of effectiveness from moderates might further encourage Trump to appoint more radical or loyal figures who align closely with his ideological stance, potentially leading to a more cohesive but less diverse administration.

Professors John Campbell and John Dearborn suggest that the decline of moderate Republicans within the party makes it even more unlikely that Trump would choose any such figures for his second term. The MAGA wing’s dominance over the party means that Trump’s future Cabinet will probably reflect this shift towards more hardline, loyalist elements, minimizing internal resistance.

With the election approaching, Trump retains significant support from a large portion of his former Cabinet and other allies. Several former officials have expressed willingness to return, and potential new appointments are being considered.

This support underscores Trump’s solidified base within the GOP, despite some opposition from former members. The loyalty of Trump’s sons and other close allies in vetting potential appointees signals a likely continuation of his approach to staff selection.