Far-Right AfD Poised for Historic Win in Thuringia and Saxony, Sparking Nationwide Alarm

The rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is causing significant concern in Germany, particularly as it is on the verge of winning the most votes in state elections in Thuringia and Saxony.

This marks a historic moment, as it would be the first time since the Nazi era that a far-right party has led in German elections. The AfD’s surge in popularity has been met with alarm by many, while others, particularly in eastern Germany, view the party as a vehicle for much-needed change.

In the lead-up to the elections, tensions have been running high. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democratic Party (SPD) is struggling in these regions, faced hostility during a campaign stop in Thuringia, where he was heckled and accused of betraying the people. The SPD, along with its Green and Liberal coalition partners, is performing so poorly in Thuringia that they might not secure a single seat in the state parliament, while the AfD is leading in the polls.

The recent stabbing incident involving a Syrian asylum seeker has intensified the debate over immigration, with critics lambasting the government’s handling of migration policies. This has prompted the government to hastily introduce stricter asylum and knife crime laws, though these measures are unlikely to quell the broader dissatisfaction fueling AfD support.

Many AfD supporters are also motivated by opposition to green policies, state intervention, and Germany’s military support for Ukraine, reflecting a deeper frustration that has simmered since reunification.

In the eastern part of the country, there remains a palpable sense of division between the former East and West Germany. This sentiment is echoed by younger generations, like 16-year-old Constantin, who feel that the East has been left behind economically and socially.

This long-standing resentment has bolstered support for the AfD, particularly among the youth, who dismiss accusations of extremism against the party despite its controversial ties and the labeling of its Thuringian branch as a right-wing extremist.

AfD supporters often distrust the media and state authorities, viewing accusations of extremism as attempts to discredit the party. This skepticism is rooted in the historical experiences of eastern Germans who lived under the oppressive surveillance of the Stasi during the communist era.

The AfD’s anti-establishment rhetoric resonates strongly in these communities, where restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and perceptions of enforced political correctness have heightened public distrust.

As the AfD gains momentum, another party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), has also seen a rise in popularity, particularly in Thuringia, where it has climbed to third place in the polls. Despite this, the AfD appears to have the best chance of securing the most votes.

However, even if the AfD wins, it is unlikely to take power, as other parties are expected to unite against it. Nonetheless, the election results will have significant implications for Chancellor Scholz and his coalition, and they are seen as a critical indicator of the political climate ahead of the federal elections.